GBD 2021 Stroke Risk Factor Collaborators. (Including Papadopoulou, P.) (2024). Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its
risk factors, 1990-2021: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.
The Lancet. Neurology, 23(10), 973–1003.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00369-7
Background
Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990-2021.
Methods
We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.
Findings
In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6-7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8-11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8-171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0-6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0-99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7-13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4-67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3-28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7-6·0) of incident strokes.
There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4-117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose
(32·1% [26·7-38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7-35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8-34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5-11·6]),
lead exposure (6·5% [4·5-11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5-10·5]).
Interpretation
Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures
to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently
implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
GBD 2021 Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators.(Including Papadopoulou, P.) (2024). Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: A systematic analysis for the
global burden of disease study 2021.
The Lancet Public Health, 9(10), e729–e744.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00166-X
Background
Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost
(YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been
proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist,
and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies.
Methods
In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence
scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease
Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking
prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future
health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides
estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that
could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile
of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework.
Findings
Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference
scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a
cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under
this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion
(95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among
males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be
avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females.
Interpretation
Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable
burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden
in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost.
Funding
Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
GBD 2021 Causes of Death Collaborators. (Including Papadopoulou, P.) (2024). Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition
in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.
The Lancet, 403(10440), 2100–2132.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00367-2
Background
Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of
mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly
important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of
the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.
Methods
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288
causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604
data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As
with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to
assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality
estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology.
YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process,
uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death,
location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90%
of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021
include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and
other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis.
For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years
of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.
Findings
The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0
deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths
[250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19
were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population).
Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive
effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the
study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other
pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years
(6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred
in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021,
and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect
to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.
Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of
which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life
expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic.
Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends
reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation
of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality
concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain
entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. (Including Papadopoulou, P.) (2024). Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations,
1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.
The Lancet, 403(10440), 2100–2132. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00933-4
Background
Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries,
and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease
for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.
Methods
The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health
outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific
estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically
organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each
risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each
risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk
factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of
attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to
account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index
(SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function
(BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for
unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95%
uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.
Findings
Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0%
(95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]),
and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and
unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI),
high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age
DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4%
(42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates
attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing
annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined,
notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3%
(60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to
declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition);
those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased
considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).
Interpretation
Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health,
WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress.
Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such
as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate
an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
GBD 2021 Demographics Collaborators. (Including Papadopoulou, P.) (2024). Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204
countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: A comprehensive demographic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.
The Lancet, 403(10440), 1989–2056.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00476-8
Background
Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has
underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries,
and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular
emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.
Methods
22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively
to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the
HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal
Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys
and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration
and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model
life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of
HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed
all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on
historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with
covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality
rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.
Findings
Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1]
decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic
period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in
2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic
(measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated
with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories,
whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than
expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7
years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy
was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which
time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in
sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger
than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.
Interpretation
Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline,
albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health
progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population
growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic
changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers,
health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of
the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Global Nutrition Target Collaborators. (Including Papadopoulou, P.) (2024). Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition
targets and forecasts to 2050: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.
The Lancet, 404(10471), 2543–2583.
https://doi.org/doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01821-X
Background
The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among
females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive
report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from
2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories.
Methods
The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the
Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date.
Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic
Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using
a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities.
Findings
In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met
the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201
countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated
with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46–0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more
rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were –0·5% and –1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable
burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that
94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 countries will meet two targets, and 89 countries will not meet any targets. We project that seven countries will meet the target
for exclusive breastfeeding, 28 for child stunting, and 101 for child wasting, and no countries will meet the targets for low birthweight, child overweight, and anaemia. In 2050,
we project that seven additional countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, five for low birthweight, 96 for child stunting, nine for child wasting, and one for
child overweight, and no countries are projected to meet the anaemia target.
Interpretation
Based on current levels and past trends, few GNTs will be met by 2030. Major reductions in attributable burden for exclusive breastfeeding and anthropometric indicators should be
recognised as huge scientific and policy successes, but the comparative lack of progress in reducing the prevalence of each, along with stagnant anaemia in women of reproductive age
and widespread increases in child overweight, suggests a tenuous status quo. Continued investment in preventive and treatment efforts for acute childhood illness is crucial to prevent
backsliding. Parallel development of effective treatments, along with commitment to multisectoral, long-term policies to address the determinants and causes of suboptimal nutrition,
are sorely needed to gain ground.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Papadopoulou, P. (2024) AI innovations in global health in the context of climate change: Impact on human health resilience.
In P. Papadopoulou, M. Lytras, & S. Konstantinopoulou (Eds.), Policies, initiatives, and innovations for global health, (pp. 1–52). IGI Global Scientific Publishing.
https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-4402-6.ch001
This chapter explores the intersection of human health, climate change, and artificial intelligence (AI), emphasizing AI's role in safeguarding human health amidst
climate challenges. It explores AI's potential as a solution and its contribution to climate change which poses significant health risks, including shifts in disease
patterns and increased threats from infectious diseases. These risks manifest through extreme weather events and disruptions to essential services like water and food
supplies. By leveraging AI technologies, tailored responses can enhance human health resilience, including early warning systems and optimized resource allocation.
The review underscores AI's promise in transforming human health resilience and readiness. However, it stresses the need to address ethical and equity concerns for
responsible deployment at the individual, public or global health level. Collaboration across sectors is crucial for maximizing AI's potential in safeguarding human health.
Papadopoulou, P. Polissidis, A., Kythreoti, G., Sagnou, M., Stefanatou, A., & Theoharides, T. C. (2024).
Anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective polyphenols derived from the European olive tree, olea europaea L., in long COVID and other conditions involving cognitive impairment
International Journal of Molecular Sciences, 25(20), 11040.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms252011040
The European olive tree, Olea europaea L., and its polyphenols hold great therapeutic potential to treat neuroinflammation and cognitive impairment. This review examines the evidence for the anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective actions of olive polyphenols and their potential in the treatment of long COVID and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Parkinson’s disease (PD), and multiple sclerosis (MS). Key findings suggest that olive polyphenols exhibit antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, neuroprotective, and antiviral properties, making them promising candidates for therapeutic intervention, especially when formulated in unique combinations. Recommendations for future research directions include elucidating molecular pathways through mechanistic studies, exploring the therapeutic implications of olive polyphenol supplementation, and conducting clinical trials to assess efficacy and safety. Investigating potential synergistic effects with other agents addressing different targets is suggested for further exploration. The evidence reviewed strengthens the translational value of olive polyphenols in conditions involving cognitive dysfunction and emphasizes the novelty of new formulations.
Papadopoulou, P., & Lytras, M. D. (2025a). Enhancing patient welfare through responsible and AI-driven healthcare innovation: Progress made in OECD countries and the case of Greece. In M. D. Lytras, A. Housawi, S. Basim, & N. R. Aljohani (Eds.), Next generation technology driven personalized medicine and smart healthcare, Next generation eHealth
(pp. 33–77). Academic Press.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-13619-1.00003-9
The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare presents challenges and opportunities for patient welfare. New policies, governance, and interoperability standards
have been introduced necessitating patient and stakeholder engagement. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have prioritized health transformation
through the use of health data, digital tools, and AI-driven healthcare innovation. AI has enormous potential to improve activities from research to treatment, administration, patient
welfare, and value for money. However, responsible development is crucial to avoid misuse. This chapter explores the ethical considerations of AI-generated healthcare innovation,
emphasizing the need for a balance between AI-driven progress and patient welfare. It examines progress in OECD countries, with a specific focus on enhancing patient welfare in Greece.
Challenges related to treatment, data privacy, transparency, fairness, algorithmic bias, informed consent, and impact on healthcare professionals are discussed. Regulatory frameworks
are considered as well as professional guidelines in the context of international collaboration. This chapter provides insights and recommendations for a responsible and patient-centric
approach, prioritizing patient welfare while navigating ethical dimensions.
Papadopoulou, P., & Lytras, M. D. (2025b). Enhancing scientific rigor with editorial roles and AI: Insights from evaluating manuscripts in digital health and personalized medicine.
In P. Papadopoulou, M. Lytras, & S. Konstantinopoulou (Eds.),In precision health in the digital age: Harnessing AI for personalized care (pp. 39-62). IGI Global Scientific Publishing.
https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-4422-4.ch003
In the evolving landscape of open-access scientific journals, the roles of editors and reviewers are crucial in ensuring quality and integrity.
This chapter analyzes the experiences of two college professors—a cell biologist/biophysicist and a computer scientist—who, in addition to various fields of study, have edited and reviewed over 50 high-impact journal manuscripts related to digital health (DH) and precision/personalized medicine (PM). Their journey
underscores the importance of multi-disciplinary approaches and artificial intelligence (AI) in evaluating complex research. The chapter highlights specific cases of DH and PM illustrating how digital solutions and AI have shaped their perspectives. Key elements of robust manuscript evaluation, such as methodological
rigor and clinical relevance, are discussed. The chapter explores the emerging role of AI in enhancing the editorial process, from initial screening to detailed analysis. The findings advocate for active participation in peer review and editorial roles, emphasizing their benefits.
Papadopoulou, P., Lytras, M. D., & Konstantinopoulou, S. (Eds.). (2025). Policies, initiatives, and innovations for global health. IGI Global.
https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-4402-6
Global health is a complex and interconnected field encompassing a wide range of policies, initiatives, and innovations aimed at improving health outcomes worldwide.
As the healthcare of populations becomes a global issue, worldwide efforts have emerged aimed at addressing the health challenges that transcend national boundaries.
Research in global health initiatives hopes to improve healthcare outcomes and disparities while promoting equity, collaboration, and sustainability in medical practices.
Policies, Initiatives, and Innovations for Global Health provides insights into effective global healthcare initiatives, including practices in governance, equity, accessibility,
and service. It explores the positive impacts of technology on world populations, with discussion on global health threats and health determinants. Covering topics such as precision
health and AI, healthcare technology, and policy response and learning, this book is a useful resource for policymakers, public health professionals, researchers, academicians,
students, healthcare practitioners, and government officials.
Papadopoulou, P., Lytras, M. D., & Konstantinopoulou, S. (Eds.). (2025). Precision Health in the digital age: Harnessing AI for personalized care. IGI Global.
https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-4422-4
The evolving healthcare landscape is now challenging healthcare providers and researchers to deliver personalized care considering individual genetic,
lifestyle, and environmental factors. To tailor treatments and interventions to each patient's unique profile in a timely manner, they need to harness the
vast amounts of readily available data. Artificial intelligence (AI) has immense potential to revolutionize precision health by enabling the analysis of large
datasets and generating actionable insights for personalized care. However, implementing AI in healthcare comes with challenges, including ethical considerations,
regulatory frameworks, and the need for healthcare professionals to develop competencies in AI technologies.
Precision Health in the Digital Age: Harnessing AI for Personalized Care offers a comprehensive solution for healthcare professionals,
researchers, and policymakers seeking to leverage AI in precision health. The book explores the latest advancements in AI technologies, showcases
their applications in precision medicine, and provides a roadmap for integrating AI into healthcare systems. It offers practical insights for improving
patient outcomes through case studies and real-world examples of successful implementations of AI-driven precision medicine and health solutions.
Papadopoulou, P., Marouli, C., Misseyanni, A., & Koutsokali, M. (2025). (2024). Human reproduction, contraception and sexually transmitted infections (STIS):
Enhancing college students’ awareness, engagement, emotions, and action. ICERI2024 Proceedings, 1198–1211.
https://doi.org/10.21125/iceri.2024.0379
Enhancing college students' awareness of human reproduction, contraception, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is crucial in today's prevalent STI landscape, with
significant economic and social implications. Understanding young people's views and experiences toward sexual health and education's role in preventing STIs is pivotal. This study piloted a learning object (LO) on STIs as part of a lab activity in an Introductory Biology course. We surveyed college students to gauge their awareness of
these topics and examine the role of education in promoting sexual health. Methods included qualitative analysis of a student survey, instructor reflections on educational practices, and the use of LOs related to STIs. Findings highlighted the need for education on STIs, contraception methods, and human reproduction, focusing on emotive learning
and behavioral change rather than solely on knowledge, which may lead to fear. The survey, primarily completed by female students, may not fully represent the student population. Further studies are needed with a larger and more diverse respondent pool. A primary recommendation is to employ LOs, a framework for education and action for STI prevention,
involving experiential learning addressing knowledge, emotions, relevance, and empowerment. This study contributes to the limited knowledge base on experiential learning and sexual health.